Allflame — day 38
Buy early in a league, sell later. Every figure below pays the worst end of the range at both ends.
Strategies
74
passed the screen
Screened
343
hypotheses tested
Best worst case
+553%
the weakest league of the top strategy
How much of this is noise
7%false discovery rate
About 7% of the table is expected to be noise, and there is no way to say which — so spread across it rather than backing one name.
LeaguesFound against chanceFoundChance
4231.26
5100.24
630.03
What this is not
- Not a prediction of the next league. It is what happened in the past ones, and a league that starts with an unusual currency breaks the pattern.
- Not a per-name claim. No single strategy clears a Bonferroni bar; four leagues cannot produce a p-value that small however real the effect.
- Not free capacity. The trade needs divine on day 3 of a league, which is exactly the population that cannot be large.
Reflecting Mist
Per league
Buy window still open
Nothing left to enter on day 38.
Every strategy here buys in the first week of a league. This is a table for the next league, not for today — which is the honest answer rather than an empty page.
Buy window has passed
Kept visible so the next league can be planned from them.
24 currencies, best window each
| Buy | Window | Worst league | Median | Leagues | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hinekora's Lock +7 more windows | day 0 → 30 | +553%+746% | +835% | 4/4 | ~256 |
 Reflecting Mist +4 more windows | day 7 → 45 | +360%+525% | +721% | 4/4 | ~879 |
 History +3 more windows | day 3 → 30 | +217%+300% | +249% | 4/4 | ~572 |
 Veiled Exalted Orb +5 more windows | day 3 → 30 | +180%+250% | +280% | 6/6 | ~706 |
 Mirror of Kalandra +4 more windows | day 3 → 30 | +178%+206% | +207% | 4/4 | ~13,489 |
| Unrequited Love +4 more windows | day 7 → 45 | +123%+141% | +204% | 4/4 | ~5,245 |
 Mirror Shard +5 more windows | day 3 → 45 | +111%+129% | +188% | 4/4 | ~2,743 |
| The Price of Devotion +3 more windows | day 3 → 30 | +107%+200% | +161% | 4/4 | ~475 |
| The Immortal +4 more windows | day 7 → 45 | +86%+138% | +157% | 4/4 | ~2,919 |
| House of Mirrors +4 more windows | day 7 → 45 | +73%+99% | +141% | 4/4 | ~26,315 |
 Deafening Essence of Scorn +2 more windows | day 7 → 30 | +73%+156% | +114% | 5/5 | ~356 |
 Orb of Dominance +1 more windows | day 7 → 30 | +60%+156% | +125% | 4/4 | ~768 |
 Exceptional Eldritch Ichor +1 more windows | day 7 → 30 | +50%+175% | +62% | 4/4 | ~243 |
 Awakener's Orb | day 7 → 45 | +50%+129% | +116% | 4/4 | ~293 |
 Exceptional Eldritch Ember +1 more windows | day 7 → 21 | +41%+210% | +74% | 4/4 | ~217 |
| Seven Years Bad Luck | day 7 → 30 | +33%+150% | +67% | 4/4 | ~500 |
 Horned Scarab of Awakening | day 7 → 45 | +32%+200% | +69% | 4/4 | ~304 |
 Grand Eldritch Ember +1 more windows | day 7 → 21 | +25%+85% | +30% | 4/4 | ~693 |
 Deafening Essence of Spite | day 7 → 45 | +24%+86% | +60% | 4/4 | ~518 |
 Dense Fossil | day 7 → 45 | +24%+69% | +25% | 4/4 | ~331 |
 Syndicate Medallion | day 7 → 21 | +20%+75% | +50% | 4/4 | ~2,044 |
 Essence of Horror | day 7 → 45 | +11%+86% | +29% | 4/4 | ~814 |
 Fine Delirium Orb | day 7 → 30 | +10%+63% | +13% | 4/4 | ~431 |
 Vivid Crystallised Lifeforce +1 more windows | day 3 → 45 | +6%+37% | +158% | 5/5 | ~1,715 |