Hour of day

Currencies worth buying at one hour and selling at another

LeagueAllflame
Updated· hours behind

What an hour of the day is worthWhat an hour of the day is worthAn earlier test measured the hour each of 666 markets was dearest, found the distribution flat, and read it as noise. Flat is equally what a real cycle in every market at its own hour looks like — which was the owner's original suggestion — so that test could not tell the two apart. This one splits each market's league in half, picks the hours on the first half and takes the return on the second. The hours repeat at 10.7% against a 1.6% chance rate, so the profiles are not noise. What they are worth is another matter, and it splits sharply by what a market is quoted in.

Hours repeated
10.7%
of markets, against 1.6% by chance
Chaos-quoted
+1.74%
median out of sample, 70% profitable
Divine-quoted
0.00%
median out of sample, 46% profitable

Roughly a hundred chaos-quoted markets carry this and pay about 1.7% on a median day, seventy percent of the time. Divine-quoted markets have profiles just as stable and no amplitude worth taking: zero out of sample, profitable less often than a coin. The top of the list reaches twenty percent, which is where the work is.

everythingonly hours that held

349 markets deep enough to profile

MarketBuy → sellBuy → sellHours of the UTC day, and they stay UTC. An hour-of-day bucket is a property of the data rather than a moment: converting it to your clock would make one row mean different things to two readers, and neither would match the analysis it came from. Everything on this site that is a *moment* — when a digest arrived, when a signal fired — is on your clock instead.Out of sampleOut of sampleHours chosen on the first half of the league, return measured on the second with those hours fixed. This is the number to believe. The column beside it is the same figure over the whole window, which was chosen on the data that measures it and runs consistently higher for that reason.Whole windowHours heldHours heldThe second half put the cheapest and dearest hours within one of where the first half did. Chance is about 1.6% for both ends; the population manages 10.7%. A market that did not hold may still show a return, and that return is the one to distrust.CauseCauseChaos has a daily cycle of its own — measured separately, strongest at 14-15h UTC and weakest at 22-23h — so every market chaos denominates inherits it. About a hundred rows here are that one finding seen a hundred times. They can all be worked; they cannot all be counted as separate evidence, and sizing them as independent bets is the mistake this list invites.Div / hour
Deafening Essence of Rage/Chaos Orb10h→22hUTC25.3%30.1%movedchaos clock127.8
Chaos Orb/Synthesising Fragment0h→8hUTC23.2%22.0%movedchaos clock198.6
Chaos Orb/Timeless Templar Emblem5h→15hUTC21.5%35.2%movedchaos clock73.2
Chaos Orb/Ambush Scarab11h→1hUTC21.0%35.8%heldchaos clock632.5
Deafening Essence of Sorrow/Chaos Orb7h→23hUTC20.0%23.6%movedchaos clock96.9
Chaos Orb/Ambush Scarab of Discernment8h→2hUTC16.1%27.1%movedchaos clock818.9
Chaos Orb/Divination Scarab of Pilfering23h→7hUTC15.8%20.3%heldchaos clock401
Chaos Orb/Allflame Ember of the Gilded11h→0hUTC15.3%22.9%movedchaos clock196.1
Tempering Orb/Chaos Orb11h→23hUTC14.6%15.4%movedchaos clock408.6
Maven's Chisel of Scarabs/Chaos Orb23h→8hUTC14.6%23.4%movedchaos clock170.3
Essence of Insanity/Chaos Orb4h→19hUTC14.2%8.5%movedchaos clock131.8
Chaos Orb/Primal Crystallised Lifeforce21h→3hUTC14.2%21.1%heldchaos clock765.6
Chaos Orb/Vivid Crystallised Lifeforce15h→2hUTC14.0%30.7%movedchaos clock1.6k
Chaos Orb/Ancient Orb20h→7hUTC13.9%15.6%heldchaos clock835.6
Chaos Orb/Divination Scarab of The Cloister10h→0hUTC13.8%18.8%movedchaos clock4.1k
Divine Orb/Divination Scarab of The Cloister8h→22hUTC13.6%19.4%movedits own1.1k
Chaos Orb/Rogue's Marker7h→22hUTC13.5%22.1%movedchaos clock51.1
Deafening Essence of Woe/Divine Orb6h→0hUTC12.6%17.5%movedits own165.9
Divine Orb/Blazing Fragment20h→6hUTC12.6%13.0%movedits own74.5
Deafening Essence of Zeal/Chaos Orb6h→21hUTC12.5%19.2%heldchaos clock182.2
Deafening Essence of Loathing/Chaos Orb4h→0hUTC12.5%16.9%movedchaos clock142.8
Deafening Essence of Zeal/Divine Orb5h→18hUTC12.4%19.2%movedits own160.9
Chaos Orb/An Audience With The King0h→7hUTC12.2%16.8%movedchaos clock586.3
Chaos Orb/Orb of Fusing22h→7hUTC11.7%19.3%movedchaos clock201.4
Orb of Remembrance/Chaos Orb13h→2hUTC11.5%11.9%heldchaos clock221
Deafening Essence of Contempt/Divine Orb10h→21hUTC11.4%13.6%movedits own85.2
Deafening Essence of Anger/Chaos Orb6h→22hUTC11.3%21.2%movedchaos clock96
Essence of Delirium/Chaos Orb4h→19hUTC10.9%10.1%movedchaos clock144
Maven's Chisel of Proliferation/Chaos Orb17h→10hUTC10.6%20.8%movedchaos clock195.5
Chaos Orb/Allflame Ember of Propagation13h→0hUTC10.5%14.9%movedchaos clock354.7
Grand Eldritch Ichor/Divine Orb11h→23hUTC10.5%12.2%movedits own254
Divine Orb/Echo of Reverence13h→3hUTC10.1%10.9%movedits own76
Chaos Orb/Essence Scarab of Calcification9h→22hUTC10.0%14.8%movedchaos clock403.4
Chaos Orb/Ritual Scarab of Abundance15h→22hUTC10.0%13.5%movedchaos clock404.3
Deafening Essence of Spite/Divine Orb10h→1hUTC9.8%12.4%movedits own70
Chaos Orb/Horned Scarab of Nemeses14h→1hUTC9.8%15.9%movedchaos clock462.4
Glassblower's Bauble/Chaos Orb9h→0hUTC9.5%6.0%movedchaos clock56.5
Deafening Essence of Woe/Chaos Orb6h→0hUTC9.1%21.4%movedchaos clock194.3
Divine Orb/Divination Scarab of Pilfering19h→7hUTC9.1%14.4%movedits own88
Exceptional Eldritch Ichor/Divine Orb2h→13hUTC8.9%8.0%movedits own173.2
Omen of Connections/Chaos Orb14h→2hUTC8.4%13.5%movedchaos clock66.6
Divine Orb/Kalguuran Scarab of Refinement0h→15hUTC8.0%12.8%movedits own52
Deafening Essence of Scorn/Divine Orb13h→21hUTC8.0%10.3%movedits own364.2
Chaos Orb/Syndicate Medallion23h→5hUTC7.9%11.4%movedchaos clock627.4
Chaotic Astrolabe/Chaos Orb0h→14hUTC7.7%13.0%movedchaos clock226.7
Divine Orb/An Audience With The King0h→3hUTC7.7%6.8%movedits own103
Chaos Orb/Harvest Scarab of Doubling14h→21hUTC7.7%10.9%movedchaos clock1.9k
Tailoring Orb/Divine Orb8h→3hUTC7.3%8.1%movedits own736.1
Divine Orb/Orb of Fusing0h→17hUTC7.3%11.1%movedits own87
Chaos Orb/Horned Scarab of Pandemonium8h→16hUTC7.2%13.4%movedchaos clock2.3k
Lightless Astrolabe/Divine Orb6h→1hUTC7.0%12.6%movedits own72.3
Nameless Astrolabe/Chaos Orb0h→10hUTC7.0%12.0%movedchaos clock363.9
Essence of Horror/Chaos Orb7h→23hUTC6.7%6.7%movedchaos clock281.5
Eldritch Orb of Annulment/Divine Orb22h→4hUTC6.5%6.7%movedits own261.1
Chaos Orb/Voidborn Reliquary Key23h→5hUTC6.5%11.5%movedchaos clock1.2k
Fungal Astrolabe/Chaos Orb1h→12hUTC6.3%14.7%heldchaos clock222.4
Faceted Fossil/Chaos Orb6h→14hUTC6.1%13.6%movedchaos clock90.1
Omen of Amelioration/Chaos Orb9h→0hUTC6.1%6.6%heldchaos clock399.3
Chaos Orb/Message in a Bottle22h→9hUTC6.1%10.1%movedchaos clock2.5k
Chaos Orb/The Doctor0h→13hUTC6.0%9.7%movedchaos clock77.3