Chaos Orb → Rogue's Marker

Allflame

LeagueAllflame
Updated

Chaos Orb/Rogue's Marker

trace
3,775Rogue's Marker per Chaos OrbWhy a median, not a midpointThe figure is the median of the day, not the middle of the hour’s band. One fill at an absurd rate sits inside a real hour and would drag a midpoint with it; a median it cannot move.

Which end is yoursWhich end is yoursThe same two numbers, read from opposite ends. It is one book: someone bought at one end of this hour and someone sold at the other, and which end is yours flips with the direction you are trading. Getting it backwards is a trade at the wrong end of the entire band. Neither figure is a bid or an ask — the source publishes no book, only the cheapest and dearest ratio that actually executed, and that gap widens with volume rather than narrowing the way a spread would.

If you are buying Rogue's Marker
6,000Rogue's Marker / Chaos Orb
The most anyone gave for one — the end you want when you are the one buying.
If you are selling Rogue's Marker
2,500Rogue's Marker / Chaos Orb
The least anyone accepted — the end you want when you are the one selling.
Changed hands
7.8M
Rogue's Marker
Traded range
2,500 6,000trace
Rogue's Marker per Chaos Orb
Range width
82.4%
high/low band — volatility, not a spread
Hours traded
5 / 5
1h
Prices taken
4
distinct values across 5 traded hours

Price historyTrendEach point is a day’s median, so a single mistyped order cannot move it. The shaded band is the middle half of that day’s hours.

Recent hoursEach bar is one hour’s traded band, placed against the widest of them. This is the one place raw high/low belongs: a single hour has no distribution to take a median from, and no bucket for a bad fill to hide in.

Each bar is one hour’s traded band, placed against the widest of them

  • 15:002500.06000.0
  • 14:001.07000.0
  • 13:002500.05580.0
  • 12:002764.74500.0
  • 11:002600.04950.0

Ways to make this tradeMeasured over 828 hours: routing around a deep direct market lost by a median 3.5% and beat it only 23% of the time.

Direct, or through a hub — and what the detour costs

Direct still wins

A route exists but comes out worse this hour, even though the direct market is thin.

Chaos OrbDivine OrbdeepRogue's Markerthin

178.6 Rogue's Marker per Chaos Orb, at the least favourable end of each leg

Route is worse than direct by roughly 93% — treat this as a direction, not a figure.